The Institute for Impact Assessment and Scientific Evaluation of Policy and Legislation
Study on the Impact Assessment on heavy-duty vehicle
January 18th 2016
The European Commission published a Communication on policy for heavy-duty vehicle CO2 emission reduction in May 2014 accompanied by an Impact Assessment. The IAI studied the Impact Assessment to assess how its conclusion of a 35.1% figure for cost-effective CO2 emission reduction potential was supported by the available data.
The study identified two main factors which acted to reduce this cost-effective potential. Firstly, by correctly combining CO2 reduction potentials of individual CO2 reduction measures using well-established methods, a 7.4% reduction is identified. Secondly, using revised figures for the CO2 reduction effect of certain measures, a further 7.7% reduction was identified. In particular, this latter reduction was mainly due to evidence indicating that the cost of hybrid propulsion technology had been substantially underestimated.
The Impact Assessment additionally expresses the expectation that CO2 reduction measures will be significantly less expensive in practice than its own projections, citing studies of the experience of CO2 emissions of passenger cars. The Impact Assessment Institute’s study identifies the need for further in‐depth analysis to provide clear evidence for whether and to what extent such an effect also exists for the case of heavy duty vehicles. This is an important step in order to ensure a comprehensive evidence base is available to support the development of policy.
In conclusion, the significant revisions to the cost-effective CO2 reduction potential identified by the Impact Assessment Institute study and the need for additional analysis should be taken into account in further policy work on this topic.